The latest phony CBS/New York Times poll shows Republicans favored by only 6%

by editor on October 29, 2010

Pity CBS and the New York Times. They can see the Republican tidal wave coming, but their liberal bias is so strong that they can’t bring themselves to admit the size of what they see.

Take the results of the latest CBS/New York Times poll, for example:

black-people

CBS and the New York Times love black people 77% more than the U.S. Census Bureau does

With the midterm elections less than a week away, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in the generic House ballot. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while 40 percent say they will vote Democrat.

Americans are divided in their views of the job President Obama is doing: 45% approve, while 47% disapprove.

If you scroll all the way down to the bottom of the poll, however, you’ll find the following paragraph:

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,173 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone October 22-26, 2010. An oversample of African Americans was interviewed, for a total of 273 interviews with African Americans.

What this means is that CBS and the New York Times have stacked the deck in this poll two different ways. And both of them lessen the impact of the aforementioned tidal wave.

First, they oversampled blacks, who are not just predominantly Democrat, but overwhelmingly Democrat. Blacks are approximately 13% of the population, yet in this poll they account for 23% of the respondents.

Obama’s not on the ballot and it is widely expected that black turn-out will decrease in this election, not increase. So what rationale could possibly justify oversampling by 77% (10/13) an ethnic group that voted 95% Democrat in the last election?

Based on this, we assume somewhere around 170% of blacks will vote Democrat in this election. Of course, this will necessarily require a major “get out the vote” effort in cemeteries across the country, but those are traditional Democrat strongholds.

Second, self-identified party breakdown (weighted) in this poll shows 28% Republicans, 38% Democrats and 45% Independents. Do CBS and the New York Times really think Democrats outnumber Republicans by 35% (10/28) in a year when Republicans are expected to dominate the balloting? For god’s sake, man, Obama only won by 7% in in 2008 in what was widely considered a runaway election.

To show just how distorted these figures are, on the same day this CBS/New York Times poll was released, Gallup released a poll on the composition of likely 2010 voters. It shows 55% Republican/Lean Republican, 40% Democrat/Lean Democrat and 4% Independent.

Of course, it’s always possible that Gallup oversampled racist, sexist, homophobic conservatives. But we doubt it.

Source: CBS News, Gallup

{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }

Justin July 14, 2011 at 12:09 pm

Wow you are totally retarded. You obviously don’t know how polling or statistics work. Maybe you should go back to school along with every other misinformed commenter here. An oversample is just done to make sure and under represented demographic of the population is polled to get a more realistic view of how those individuals think. The results from these oversampled people are then weighted differently. In other words for you slow people here the results from these oversampled people are figured in to not distort the results. They just want to make sure they have a large enough sample so that results for these under represented people are significant and reflect the true views of the respondents. And by the way I am a professional, my job is doing polls so I would know.

Babydoll102187 July 14, 2011 at 3:33 pm

Well thank goodness your not a counselor because your people skills suck. I gave you a thumbs down for being a jack@#$, and rude.

RockingHorseGuy July 14, 2011 at 3:48 pm

Obama’s job is being President. But I don’t assume that means he knows how it’s done.

Kip Hooker July 14, 2011 at 4:34 pm

Whoa CBS would never do anything to skew results. No where, no way, no how. I mean it was just last year that they won the prestigious Rather-Mapes Award for Journalistic Integrity. I mean that right there just about says everything that needs saying.

DJ July 14, 2011 at 9:12 pm

“…In other words for you slow people here the results from these oversampled people are figured in to not distort the results. They just want to make sure they have a large enough sample so that results for these under represented people are significant and reflect the true views of the respondents…”

OK, I must be slow.
Please expound on why your explanation makes it sound like Affirmative Action in Polling. Or Fuzzy Math, Massaging the Numbers etc.

If they wanted to get a large enough sample to make sure an underrepresented demographic is polled “to get a more realistic view of how those individuals think”, THEN ASK THEM!
And write down (truthfully) what they their answer is. Why is it soooooo difficult? Just get a huge sample, figure out your demographics and ask away and report.

BTW, how exactly do you not distort the results from the oversampled people?

You make it sound like, “We can’t believe these percentages, so we’re gonna ask more people to even up the score.”

KimmyQueen October 30, 2010 at 5:01 pm

Liberals/Progressives say: Less manipulate them black folks one more time, it has been working so far…

Manipulation of minorities especially black americans by the liberal/progressive media and politicians will not go away anytime soon, so it is important for conservatives to counter that not with manipulation but with the truth.

drb October 30, 2010 at 6:14 am

What is amazing is that they still show repulicans in the lead at all.

YT October 29, 2010 at 7:41 pm

“Dewey defeats Truman” was the iconic headline.

Thanks for being the one of the few that realizes that both sides of the isle have been corrupted by power.

Vic October 30, 2010 at 4:49 pm

Thanks YT!
Wasn’t there a headline (was it here, or over at Drudge?) that said a remarkably large percentage of the country wants to replace ALL of congress. That has term limits written all over it. Fossils like Reid, Boxer, Pelosi, Coons, Fwank, that would eliminate all of this.

Vote Often, Democrats do!!

Vic October 29, 2010 at 1:05 pm

Quote: “…this will necessarily require a major “get out the vote” effort in cemeteries across the country” That is a grave situation. Many of the voter will be a little stiff. But I dig reading stories like this one. It looks like we are going to bury the democrats.
(A pun is a terrible thing to waste)

Vote Often! Democrats do!

YT October 29, 2010 at 1:34 pm
USN-RETIRED October 29, 2010 at 4:17 pm

I can’t wait to hear the ritual post-mortem discussions as the Talking Heads try to determine the cause of death of the Democrat majority on Wednesday. Wonder what kind of excuses they’ll dig up as they try to worm their way out of their mis-predictions? They’ll probably be so depressed Tuesday night they’ll get embalmed at the local tavern. If they try to find solace in weed, they’d better hope it wasn’t cut with oregano. That mix leads to some serious coffin.

Vic October 29, 2010 at 6:54 pm

YT Thank you! Four for the price of one!
USN-R Please do say that! Wasn’t it in the 1920’s that (IIRC) Dewey V FDR, and the race was so overwhelming that one paper in Chicago put the next mornings edition through the printer with “DEWEY WINS” above the fold? Let’s not hatch our chickens until we’ve counted them. There are a number of things that scare me: 1) The passions are very different. Overall I don’t think the conservatives hate the liberals. Now we don’t like them very much but we don’t hate them. I do believe the majority of everyone who isn’t us, hate us. 2) There is a LOT of dishonesty on their side of the alley. We’ve already seen more of that, than I’ve ever seen in al election. (Franken in Meaniesoter comes to mine) So let’s stay the course, and party hardy on Wednesday, but not until then!

Philanthropist October 29, 2010 at 11:13 am

Republican is the new Black according to race-mongering Liberals? Or something? I know it’s okay for Liberals to call Republican women bitches or whores, but does this mean it’s also okay to discriminate against all Republicans?
130% of College students voted for Obama, maybe 170% of Democrats will vote in the mid-terms….

Im_a_Democrat October 29, 2010 at 2:51 am

and now you’re starting to get how this media thing works. OH, I don’t expect you to fully get it, but you’re coming along – especially with this sentence: “this will necessarily require a major “get out the vote” effort in cemeteries across the country” … damn right it will (but of course, if anyone knows how to help dead people vote, it’s us Democrats!)

YT October 29, 2010 at 9:56 am

Then please explain: what benefit is there to misrepresenting truth? If anything, I would expect them to undersample blacks to scare up more turnout for Dems.

Do they know something we don’t? For example, maybe the last-minute deciders are swayed by momentum and just want to vote for who everyone else likes? I’m not a political science person so I don’t know how this works. I’m just a chump that has to build stuff to eat.